Traffic stop policy in Ramsey County, MN

Published June 7, 2023

Background

On September 8, 2021, the Ramsey County Attorney’s Office (RCAO) joined with law enforcement officials to announce changes to policies and practices with the goal of reducing traffic stops based solely on certain minor equipment or registration infractions. The policy states that the RCAO will not prosecute cases when the charge is "solely the product of a non-public-safety traffic stop"

The primary goal of the policy is to ensure that the law is enforced equitably by eliminating practices that produce racially disproportionate outcomes without attendant public safety benefits. This will ultimately improve public safety by strengthening trust and confidence in the legal system and allowing law enforcement officials to apply more resources to public safety issues.

The policy is intended to reduce "non-public-safety" traffic stops, which are also known as "pretextual" stops because they often involve police officers stopping drivers for minor, non-safety-related infractions with the intent to seek evidence of a more serious crime. These discretionary stops, which rarely turn up contraband, lead to racial inequities and damaged relationships between the community and police.

In conjunction with the RCAO policy announcement, the chiefs of the Saint Paul, St. Anthony, and Maplewood police departments expressed support for a focus on moving violations over vehicle equipment violations, and changed department practices accordingly. The Roseville police department had been moving in this direction since 2017 through a directive, and announced their own policy in August 2021.

In this report, Justice Innovation Lab (JIL) investigates traffic stop data to examine the extent, if any, to which these policy and practice changes affected use of non-public-safety stops by the police, as well as the impact on racial disproportionalities in traffic stops. JIL also analyzes available data on 911 calls and firearm seizures to examine the potential impact of the changes on crime.

Data and analyses

The analyses in this report are based on data collected by the Ramsey County Emergency Communications Center (ECC) for traffic stops and 911 calls, as well as firearm seizure data provided by the Saint Paul Police Department (SPPD). JIL analyzed a subset of the ECC data covering the time period from March 2018, the date by which all police departments were using the ECC, through September 2022, the last full month of available data at the time of analysis.

JIL grouped the data by police department alignment with the RCAO policy for certain analyses in order to evaluate policy impact. JIL identified each police department as either aligned with the RCAO policy or as not having implemented changes, based on conversations with the RCAO and review of public statements. The analyzed police departments vary in size; since the Saint Paul Police Department accounts for nearly half of all traffic stops, SPPD data points are shown separately so as not to obscure trends for other aligned PDs. The list below provides the three policy alignment categories used in the analyses, the PDs in each category, and the percentage of all Ramsey County traffic stops attributed to each PD during the time period analyzed.

• SPPD: SPPD is aligned with the RCAO policy and accounts for 47.6% of traffic stops in Ramsey County
• Other Aligned PDs: Roseville (RVPD, 7.7%), Maplewood (MAPD, 6.8%), and St. Anthony (SAPD, 0.2%)
• Unchanged Policy PDs: Ramsey County Sheriff's Office (RCSO, 12.5%), White Bear (WBPD, 9.6%), New Brighton (NBPD, 5.8%), Mounds View (MVPD, 6.7%), and North St. Paul (NSPD, 3.2%)

Traffic stops

Over 200,000 Ramsey County traffic stops are included in the analysis after cleaning the data to remove duplicate entries and data entry errors. For each traffic stop, the police identify the race and gender

To evaluate policy impact on non-public-safety traffic stops, several factors are considered. First, a broad overview of trends in all traffic stops and searches is provided. Next, the reason identified by police for traffic stops is assessed to determine whether the policy specifically leads to decreases in the minor vehicle equipment violation stops it was expected to reduce. Finally, an assessment of driver race data provides insight regarding the intended policy effect of reducing racial disproportionalities in traffic stops.

Crime

While statistics on police-initiated traffic stops provide a direct indication of policy impact, it is also important to assess potential indirect policy implications, such as changes in crime rates. For example, if police are making fewer non-public-safety traffic stops and resources are therefore transferred to other crime prevention methods, crime rates may decline. Alternatively, if stops for vehicle equipment violations provide a preventative measure against more serious crime, a reduction in these stops could lead to increased crime. JIL used two sources to assess the potential impact of the policy on crime: 911 call data from the Ramsey County ECC and firearm seizure data from the SPPD.

The 911 calls analyzed come from members of the public; these calls are categorized by the ECC dispatcher based on the description of the problem provided by the caller.

JIL also assessed firearm seizure data provided by the SPPD, consisting of all firearm seizures made by the SPPD from January 2020 through September 2022. Importantly for this analysis, starting in January 2021, the dataset includes an indication of whether the firearm was seized during a traffic stop for any reason. Firearm seizures are of particular interest because an argument in favor of non-public-safety traffic stops could be that such stops allow police to find and seize firearms that may otherwise be used in violent crime.

Findings

Traffic stops

Overview of all traffic stops

The chart below provides an overview of stop and search trends for all traffic stop types combined, for each policy alignment category (SPPD, Other Aligned PDs, Unchanged Policy PDs). Individual data points show average daily stops or searches for a given month

• There was a steep decline in stops and searches for all PD groups after initial COVID-19 lockdowns in March 2020, soon followed by a significant increase that could be attributed to a combination of relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions and unrest following the death of George Floyd.
• There was an initial decline in stops and searches by policy-aligned PDs immediately following announcement of the traffic stop policy change in September 2021, but these began to increase in Spring 2022. The increase appears to be driven by an increase in stops for moving violations (see next section) and historical seasonal patterns.
• There was no decline in stops or searches after September 2021 for PDs with unchanged policies.

The bar chart below shows four, 1-year periods for each policy alignment category, starting in September 2018. The rightmost bar in each grouping represents the 12-month period following change implementation. The large drop in annual stop and search totals after the first year is most likely due to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. On an annual basis:

• Searches decreased each year for all policy alignment categories. SPPD had the largest decline the year following change implementation, from 1,611 searches to 791 searches, a decrease of 50.9%.
• There was a large drop in SPPD traffic stops the year after change implementation, but stops increased for both other aligned PDs and unchanged policy PDs. SPPD traffic stops dropped by 42.6%, from 20,647 to 11,842.

Reasons for vehicle stops

The most common reasons for traffic stops are moving violations (e.g., speeding, driving under the influence) and vehicle equipment violations (e.g., expired registration, excess muffler noise, rear-view mirror obstruction). Since the revised traffic stop policy is specifically intended to decrease the number of traffic stops for minor, non-safety-related vehicle equipment violations, the chart below compares the difference in these stop types from the year before to the year after change implementation and shows that:

• Traffic stops and searches stemming from vehicle equipment violations decreased for both aligned and unchanged PD groups, but aligned PDs saw a much larger decrease. Vehicle equipment violation stops by the SPPD dropped over 90% from the year before to the year after change implementation.
• SPPD traffic stops stemming from moving violations also decreased following change implementation, but to a lesser extent (26% decrease). Moving violation stops increased for other PDs the year following change implementation, both for aligned and unchanged policy groupings.

The charts below provide additional context to the shifts in traffic stop types following the policy change, by showing the percentage and number of stops for the top three traffic stop reasons before and after the policy went into effect.

Driver race and ethnicity - entire county

Non-public-safety traffic stops are historically racially disproportionate. Policies to eliminate traffic stops for minor, non-safety-related vehicle equipment violations can help to address racial disproportionalities and ensure that the law is equally applied. To analyze the effectiveness of the new traffic stop policy in reducing racially disproportionate outcomes in Ramsey County, JIL calculated the per capita number of traffic stops and searches by race and ethnicity, based on Ramsey County demographics. The per capita numbers presented below are for all Ramsey County police departments combined, since the demographic numbers used are at the county level. The analysis of stops and searches per capita reveals that:

• Black people are stopped and searched more frequently than all other groups, both before and after the change in traffic stop practices, and the per capita disparity is large.
• Vehicle equipment violation stops and searches per capita decreased dramatically for Black people the year following change implementation. These stops and searches also decreased to some extent for each race and ethnicity group represented in the ECC data. It is important to note that the race and ethnicity groups presented are based on police officer assessment, which may differ from how a driver identifies.
• Black and White people also saw a decrease in moving violation stops, though these stops increased for other groups. Searches stemming from moving violations decreased for all groups other than Native Americans.

The following charts show the percent change in stops and searches for vehicle equipment violations and moving violations, for each race and ethnicity group, from the year before to the year after change implementation. Traffic stops for vehicle equipment violations, as well as searches that occurred during these stops, decreased for each group, with the largest drop for Black people. This indicates that the policy is successful in narrowing racial gaps in traffic stops.

Crime

While the results presented above provide evidence of the intended policy impact, it is also important to assess potential unintended consequences. Opponents of policies limiting non-public-safety stops argue that such policies may hamper law enforcement from suppressing criminal activity, causing crime rates to increase.

911 calls made by the public

The chart below shows the total volume of 911 calls made by members of the public over time. On average, the number of these calls has been gradually increasing over the time period analyzed, but there is no discernible link to the new traffic stop policy. There is a drop in 911 calls immediately following implementation of the policy for all PD categories, but this is likely the result of seasonal patterns combined with other factors, such as students returning to in-person school after a lengthy absence due to COVID-19 restrictions.

JIL next assessed subsets of public 911 call types to determine if there could be changes in the volume of calls specifically related to the types of contraband potentially seized during non-public-safety traffic stops. The first analysis involves categorizing crime-related 911 calls as either violent or non-violent, then evaluating any differences from the year before to the year after change implementation. This chart indicates that:

• Violent crime increased to some extent the year following change implementation for all PD categories, but the largest increase was in jurisdictions of unchanged policy PDs. This indicates that new traffic stop practices are not responsible for changes in violent crime. There does not appear to be any link between crime-related public 911 calls and traffic stop policy.

Following the September 2021 change in traffic stop practices, there were no changes in public 911 calls for "Narcotics," "Shots Fired," or "Weapon" indicative of a policy impact related to reduced contraband seizure.

Firearm seizures

The final dataset evaluated consists of the number of firearm seizures recorded by the SPPD, beginning in 2020. Starting in 2021, the dataset also indicates whether the firearm seizure occurred during a traffic stop. The chart below shows total daily average firearm seizures over this period, along with daily average firearm seizures stemming from traffic stops.

• While there appears to be a drop in traffic stop firearm seizures following change implementation, the overall numbers are very small and there is not enough data to get a clear idea of trends in traffic seizures prior to the change.
• On average, the SPPD seized 1.4 firearms per day overall both before and after implementation of the new traffic stop practices.

JIL also calculated monthly firearm seizure rates during traffic stops, as shown below.

• On average, the SPPD seized a firearm in only 0.8% of all traffic stops (0.9% before change implementation, 0.7% after) and 10.5% of traffic stops where the driver or their vehicle is searched (12.2% before change implementation, 9.5% after).
• This indicates that even if new traffic stop practices result in fewer firearm seizures during traffic stops, the number of these seizures is so low to begin with that this is unlikely to have an impact on crime rates.

Conclusions

Analysis of Ramsey County traffic stop data suggests that reducing non-public-safety traffic stops leads to more equitable traffic policing. Overall, the data analyses indicate that the new traffic stop policies and practices were successful in reducing minor, non-safety-related vehicle violation stops, that this reduction resulted in a narrowing of racial differences in traffic stops and searches, and that the policy had no discernible effect on crime rates.

Analyses of traffic stop data show that:

• There was an initial decline in stops and searches by policy-aligned PDs immediately following the announcement of changes in September 2021, but these began to increase in Spring 2022. The increase appears to be driven by an increase in stops for moving violations and historical seasonal patterns.
• There was no decline in overall stops or searches after September 2021 for PDs with unchanged policies.
• There was a large drop in SPPD traffic stops the year after change implementation, but stops increased for both other aligned PDs and unchanged policy PDs.
• Traffic stops stemming from vehicle equipment violations dropped for all PD categories, but the decrease was by far the largest for the SPPD, with a 90.8% reduction from the year before to the year after change implementation. The decline in vehicle equipment violation stops was also large for other aligned PDs (55.5%), but relatively small for unchanged policy PDs (4.6%).
• SPPD traffic stops stemming from moving violations also decreased following change implementation, by 26%, but these increased by 33% for other policy-aligned PDs.
• Black people are stopped more frequently than all other groups, both before and after the change in traffic stop practices. However, per capita vehicle equipment violation stops and searches decreased dramatically for Black people the year following change implementation. These stops also decreased to a considerable, but lesser, extent for other race and ethnicity groups. The relative decreases seen in Ramsey County lead to reduced racial disproportionalities in vehicle equipment violation stops.

Analyses of 911 calls made by the public and SPPD firearm seizures indicate that:

• The number of 911 calls has been gradually increasing over the time period analyzed, but there is no discernible link to the new traffic stop policy. There was a drop in 911 calls immediately following change implementation for all PD categories, but this is likely the result of seasonal patterns and a return to in-person school after COVID-19 restrictions were lifted.
• Violent crime increased to some extent the year after change implementation for all PD categories, but the increase was largest in the jurisdictions of unchanged policy PDs. This indicates that the new traffic stop policy is not responsible for changes in violent crime.
• Public 911 calls related to contraband (narcotics and weapons) that could be seized during traffic stops either declined or remained steady following change implementation, indicating no negative impact of the policy related to a reduction in seizure of contraband.
• The new traffic stop policy did not impact overall SPPD firearm seizures. On average, the SPPD seized 1.4 firearms per day overall both before and after implementation of the new traffic stop practices.
• Few firearm seizures stemmed from a traffic stop. The SPPD seized a firearm during only 0.8% of all traffic stops (data on seizures specifically during non-public-safety traffic stops are unavailable). This indicates that even if the new policy results in fewer firearm seizures during traffic stops, the number of these seizures is so low that there is unlikely to be an impact on crime rates.